The fair price
We take four or more books and remove their margin, so you see the market's own estimate of the true chance.
Over 24.5 points · Example
Over -11052.4%
Under -11052.4%
Books' total 104.8%Fair +100
Testing: every pick is shown free while we test the model.
NBA player props · priced before every tip
Sportsbooks limit winners. We unlimit them.
Every NBA prop, priced against the market, net of your fees, graded on CLV.
15 picks on today's card. Monthly cancels anytime.Tonight's boardPrices from every major sportsbook, checked before tipExample
LAL
Marcus Hale
BKN @ LAL · 7:30 PM
Over 24.5 points
Fair +100 · 4 books
+105
DraftKings
+2.5%
edge
Tonight's board posts about 3 hours before the first tip. When no book beats the fair price, there is nothing on it.
On every bet
The whole case for a bet, on one screen.
Bet like the market's sharpest money, and prove it. Every bet shows where the fair price comes from, what our model expects, who is out tonight, and whether the book has caught up.
4+ books per priceYour state's books and feesEvery bet graded on closing line value
What could happen
Our model's full range of outcomes for the player tonight, with the line drawn on it. Drag it on the board to test any number.
Projection 26.1 · over hits 54% · Example
1420263238
Every book, one scale
Each sportsbook's price against the fair price, at the books licensed in your state. Green beats fair.
Against fair +100 · Example
DraftKings+110
FanDuel-110
BetMGM-115
BetRivers-108
Who's out tonight
When a teammate is ruled out, his minutes go to the players who usually take them, and the price moves with them.
From the injury report, polled all day · Example
Starting guardQuestionable
Marcus Hale34.0 min
Alerts on the board
The moment a bet clears our bar, its edge moves, or a book hasn't caught up with injury news.
Today's alerts · Example
Marcus Hale Over 24.5News-driven
Theo Brandt Over 8.5 rebEdge moved
Devin Okafor Under 6.5 astTagged Questionable
Ray Castillo Over 2.5 threesNew edge
Graded on the close
Every bet is graded twice: on the final box score, and on whether our price beat where the market closed.
Closing line value over a season · Example
Today's card
Today's card
Every pick on today's card, shown in full while we test.
Free pick · NCAAF · Sat 6:00pm CDT
UAB Blazers
UAB Blazers @ Memphis Tigers
+600
at Bally Bet
Fair+558
Edge6.4%
Win chance15.2%
Stake0.5u
Bally Bet is hanging +600. The sharp market (Pinnacle + BetOnline + LowVig) makes it +558. 9 books range +440 to +600.
| Market | Book | Price | Fair | Edge | Stake |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Duke Blue DevilsDuke Blue Devils @ Georgia Tech Yellow Jackets · Sat 2:30pm CDT71.5% win chance · theScore Bet is hanging -227. The sharp market (Pinnacle + BetOnline + LowVig) makes it -251. 9 books range -278 to -227. | theScore Bet | -227 | -251 | 3.0% | 3u |
| Houston TexansHouston Texans @ Tennessee Titans · Sun 12:00pm CDT78.0% win chance · betPARX is hanging -312. The sharp market (Pinnacle + BetOnline + LowVig) makes it -354. 10 books range -400 to -312. | betPARX | -312 | -354 | 3.0% | 3u |
| Green Bay PackersChicago Bears @ Green Bay Packers · Sun 12:00pm CDT42.0% win chance · theScore Bet is hanging +145. The sharp market (Pinnacle + BetOnline + LowVig) makes it +138. 10 books range +117 to +145. | theScore Bet | +145 | +138 | 2.9% | 1u |
| Air Force FalconsAir Force Falcons @ Northern Illinois Huskies · Sat 6:30pm CDT75.5% win chance · theScore Bet is hanging -278. The sharp market (Pinnacle + BetOnline + LowVig) makes it -309. 9 books range -333 to -278. | theScore Bet | -278 | -309 | 2.7% | 3u |
| Sacramento State HornetsSacramento State Hornets @ Bowling Green Falcons · Sat 11:00am CDT27.4% win chance · betPARX is hanging +275. The sharp market (Pinnacle + BetOnline + LowVig) makes it +265. 9 books range +230 to +275. | betPARX | +275 | +265 | 2.7% | 0.5u |
| Pittsburgh Panthers -3.5North Carolina Tar Heels @ Pittsburgh Panthers · Sat 11:00am CDT51.3% win chance · theScore Bet is hanging +100. The sharp market (Pinnacle + BetOnline + LowVig) makes it -105. 5 books range -115 to +100. | theScore Bet | +100 | -105 | 2.5% | 1.5u |
| Los Angeles RamsBuffalo Bills @ Los Angeles Rams · Mon 7:15pm CDT60.6% win chance · theScore Bet is hanging -145. The sharp market (Pinnacle + BetOnline + LowVig) makes it -154. 9 books range -164 to -145. | theScore Bet | -145 | -154 | 2.4% | 1.5u |
| Penn State Nittany Lions -1.5USC Trojans @ Penn State Nittany Lions · Sat 6:30pm CDT51.2% win chance · theScore Bet is hanging +100. The sharp market (BetOnline + LowVig) makes it -105. 5 books range -112 to +100. | theScore Bet | +100 | -105 | 2.3% | 1u |
| Seattle Seahawks -3San Francisco 49ers @ Seattle Seahawks · Sun 3:25pm CDT53.5% win chance · DraftKings is hanging -110. The sharp market (BetOnline + LowVig) makes it -115. 8 books range -118 to -110. | DraftKings | -110 | -115 | 2.2% | 1u |
| Virginia CavaliersSyracuse Orange @ Virginia Cavaliers · Sat 6:30pm CDT77.6% win chance · BetMGM is hanging -323. The sharp market (Pinnacle + BetOnline + LowVig) makes it -347. 10 books range -417 to -323. | BetMGM | -323 | -347 | 1.7% | 2.5u |
| Alabama Crimson TideGeorgia Bulldogs @ Alabama Crimson Tide · Sat 6:30pm CDT53.2% win chance · theScore Bet is hanging -110. The sharp market (Pinnacle + BetOnline + LowVig) makes it -114. 9 books range -125 to -110. | theScore Bet | -110 | -114 | 1.6% | 1u |
| Florida GatorsSouth Carolina Gamecocks @ Florida Gators · Sat 11:45am CDT82.0% win chance · Hard Rock Bet is hanging -417. The sharp market (Pinnacle + BetOnline + LowVig) makes it -455. 9 books range -556 to -417. | Hard Rock Bet | -417 | -455 | 1.6% | 3u |
| Seattle SeahawksSan Francisco 49ers @ Seattle Seahawks · Sun 3:25pm CDT61.6% win chance · DraftKings is hanging -154. The sharp market (Pinnacle + BetOnline + LowVig) makes it -160. 10 books range -169 to -154. | DraftKings | -154 | -160 | 1.6% | 1u |
| Pittsburgh SteelersIndianapolis Colts @ Pittsburgh Steelers · Sun 12:00pm CDT58.1% win chance · FanDuel is hanging -133. The sharp market (Pinnacle + BetOnline + LowVig) makes it -138. 10 books range -147 to -133. | FanDuel | -133 | -138 | 1.6% | 1u |
How it works
How a bet gets on the board
No hunches. A bet shows only when a book's price beats the fair price by more than our bar, after your fees.
01
The market already knows a lot. We start from what it agrees on.
52.4% + 52.4% → 50% / 50%
The record
Every bet we post, kept and graded.
Record3-1Wins, losses, pushes.
Units+2.5uGraded from final scores.
Return+70.0%On units risked.
Average CLV-1.41%Beat the close on 60% of picks.
Building the sample: 5 of 50 closing prices
Average CLV -1.41% · beat the closing line 60.0% · 5 of 19 picks have a closing price
| Posted | Pick | Price | Stake | Result | CLV | Final |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-10-07 | New Mexico State AggiesNew Mexico State Aggies @ Florida International Panthers | +225theScore Bet | 0.5u | L -0.50u | -5.91% | New Mexico State Aggies 3, Florida International Panthers 22 |
| 2026-10-06 | Over 58.5South Alabama Jaguars @ Arkansas State Red Wolves | +100theScore Bet | 1u | W +1.00u | South Alabama Jaguars 56, Arkansas State Red Wolves 49 | |
| 2026-10-06 | Over 41.5Iowa Hawkeyes @ Washington Huskies | +100theScore Bet | 1u | W +1.00u | +0.70% | Iowa Hawkeyes 41, Washington Huskies 24 |
| 2026-10-05 | Over 49.5Southern Mississippi Golden Eagles @ Troy Trojans | -105Hard Rock Bet | 1u | W +0.95u | Southern Mississippi Golden Eagles 34, Troy Trojans 55 |
Full record. Wins and losses are graded from the final score. CLV shows whether our price beat where the market closed, the best long-run sign an edge is real.
Membership
Membership
Every bet lands on the board the moment it clears our bar, with an alert, usually hours before tip while the price is still there.
Founding
$29/month
- Everything in Monthly
- Only the first 25 members
- Price locked for life
Monthly
$49/month
- Every pick with book, price and stake
- Alerts on the board when a bet posts, moves or gets injury news
- The fair price on every bet, so you know when the number is gone