The fair price
We take four or more books and remove their margin, so you see the market's own estimate of the true chance.
Over 24.5 points · Example
Over -11052.4%
Under -11052.4%
Books' total 104.8%Fair +100
Testing: every pick is shown free while we test the model.
NBA player props · priced before every tip
Sportsbooks limit winners. We unlimit them.
Every NBA prop, priced against the market, net of your fees, graded on CLV.
1 pick on today's card. Monthly cancels anytime.Tonight's boardPrices from every major sportsbook, checked before tipExample
LAL
Marcus Hale
BKN @ LAL · 7:30 PM
Over 24.5 points
Fair +100 · 4 books
+105
DraftKings
+2.5%
edge
Tonight's board posts about 3 hours before the first tip. When no book beats the fair price, there is nothing on it.
On every bet
The whole case for a bet, on one screen.
Bet like the market's sharpest money, and prove it. Every bet shows where the fair price comes from, what our model expects, who is out tonight, and whether the book has caught up.
4+ books per priceYour state's books and feesEvery bet graded on closing line value
What could happen
Our model's full range of outcomes for the player tonight, with the line drawn on it. Drag it on the board to test any number.
Projection 26.1 · over hits 54% · Example
1420263238
Every book, one scale
Each sportsbook's price against the fair price, at the books licensed in your state. Green beats fair.
Against fair +100 · Example
DraftKings+110
FanDuel-110
BetMGM-115
BetRivers-108
Who's out tonight
When a teammate is ruled out, his minutes go to the players who usually take them, and the price moves with them.
From the injury report, polled all day · Example
Starting guardQuestionable
Marcus Hale34.0 min
Alerts on the board
The moment a bet clears our bar, its edge moves, or a book hasn't caught up with injury news.
Today's alerts · Example
Marcus Hale Over 24.5News-driven
Theo Brandt Over 8.5 rebEdge moved
Devin Okafor Under 6.5 astTagged Questionable
Ray Castillo Over 2.5 threesNew edge
Graded on the close
Every bet is graded twice: on the final box score, and on whether our price beat where the market closed.
Closing line value over a season · Example
Today's card
Today's card
Every pick on today's card, shown in full while we test.
Free pick · NFL · Mon 7:15pm CDT
Los Angeles Rams
Buffalo Bills @ Los Angeles Rams
-145
at theScore Bet
Fair-154
Edge2.4%
Win chance60.6%
Stake1.5u
theScore Bet is hanging -145. The sharp market (Pinnacle + BetOnline + LowVig) makes it -154. 9 books range -164 to -145.
Nothing else cleared the edge threshold today. Some days that's one pick. Some days it's none.
How it works
How a bet gets on the board
No hunches. A bet shows only when a book's price beats the fair price by more than our bar, after your fees.
01
The market already knows a lot. We start from what it agrees on.
52.4% + 52.4% → 50% / 50%
The record
Every bet we post, kept and graded.
Record5-8Wins, losses, pushes.
Units-6.2uGraded from final scores.
Return-31.7%On units risked.
Average CLV+0.65%Beat the close on 38% of picks.
Building the sample: 16 of 50 closing prices
Average CLV +0.65% · beat the closing line 37.5% · 16 of 19 picks have a closing price
| Posted | Pick | Price | Stake | Result | CLV | Final |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-10-09 | Virginia CavaliersSyracuse Orange @ Virginia Cavaliers | -323BetMGM | 2.5u | W +0.78u | +9.97% | Syracuse Orange 25, Virginia Cavaliers 28 |
| 2026-10-07 | New Mexico State AggiesNew Mexico State Aggies @ Florida International Panthers | +225theScore Bet | 0.5u | L -0.50u | -5.91% | New Mexico State Aggies 3, Florida International Panthers 22 |
| 2026-10-07 | Florida GatorsSouth Carolina Gamecocks @ Florida Gators | -417Hard Rock Bet | 3u | L -3.00u | -0.35% | South Carolina Gamecocks 38, Florida Gators 19 |
| 2026-10-06 | Pittsburgh Panthers -3.5North Carolina Tar Heels @ Pittsburgh Panthers | +100theScore Bet | 1.5u | L -1.50u | -1.56% | North Carolina Tar Heels 21, Pittsburgh Panthers 17 |
| 2026-10-06 | Over 58.5South Alabama Jaguars @ Arkansas State Red Wolves | +100theScore Bet | 1u | W +1.00u | South Alabama Jaguars 56, Arkansas State Red Wolves 49 | |
| 2026-10-06 | Penn State Nittany Lions -1.5USC Trojans @ Penn State Nittany Lions | +100theScore Bet | 1u | L -1.00u | -3.66% | USC Trojans 31, Penn State Nittany Lions 23 |
| 2026-10-06 | Over 41.5Iowa Hawkeyes @ Washington Huskies | +100theScore Bet | 1u | W +1.00u | +0.70% | Iowa Hawkeyes 41, Washington Huskies 24 |
| 2026-10-06 | Alabama Crimson TideGeorgia Bulldogs @ Alabama Crimson Tide | -110theScore Bet | 1u | L -1.00u | +4.31% | Georgia Bulldogs 20, Alabama Crimson Tide 17 |
| 2026-10-05 | UAB BlazersUAB Blazers @ Memphis Tigers | +600Bally Bet | 0.5u | L -0.50u | -0.81% | UAB Blazers 13, Memphis Tigers 38 |
| 2026-10-05 | Duke Blue DevilsDuke Blue Devils @ Georgia Tech Yellow Jackets | -227theScore Bet | 3u | L -3.00u | -5.45% | Duke Blue Devils 25, Georgia Tech Yellow Jackets 28 |
| 2026-10-05 | Air Force FalconsAir Force Falcons @ Northern Illinois Huskies | -278theScore Bet | 3u | W +1.08u | -1.52% | Air Force Falcons 28, Northern Illinois Huskies 7 |
| 2026-10-05 | Sacramento State HornetsSacramento State Hornets @ Bowling Green Falcons | +275betPARX | 0.5u | L -0.50u | -5.69% | Sacramento State Hornets 10, Bowling Green Falcons 38 |
| 2026-10-05 | Over 49.5Southern Mississippi Golden Eagles @ Troy Trojans | -105Hard Rock Bet | 1u | W +0.95u | Southern Mississippi Golden Eagles 34, Troy Trojans 55 |
Full record. Wins and losses are graded from the final score. CLV shows whether our price beat where the market closed, the best long-run sign an edge is real.
Membership
Membership
Every bet lands on the board the moment it clears our bar, with an alert, usually hours before tip while the price is still there.
Founding
$29/month
- Everything in Monthly
- Only the first 25 members
- Price locked for life
Monthly
$49/month
- Every pick with book, price and stake
- Alerts on the board when a bet posts, moves or gets injury news
- The fair price on every bet, so you know when the number is gone